A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
